Texas lands No. 9 seed in Bryant’s CFP projection

On3 Texas writer John Bryant projects Texas to reach the College Football Playoff at 9-3 as the No. 9 seed. The Longhorns would visit No. 8 Wake Forest in the first round. His forecast assumes the Longhorns lose to Missouri, beat LSU and finish as the SEC runner-up.

The committee’s initial rankings drive that argument. Texas is No. 7 in the CFP rankings despite holding the No. 10 spot in the AP Poll, while two-loss Texas and Alabama both sit ahead of undefeated UCLA and one-loss Notre Dame and BYU.

Bryant views that order as evidence of the committee giving weight to schedule strength and quality wins. He cautions that its approach can change from week to week. Under his projected results, Texas would own head-to-head wins over Ole Miss, Tennessee and LSU, with all four teams finishing 9-3.

Bryant favors Texas for an at-large bid based on those direct results. He projects Georgia as the 11-1 conference champion and No. 1 seed, Texas at No. 9 and Ole Miss at No. 11, giving the SEC three places in the 12-team field.

Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, Missouri and Kentucky are each projected at 9-3 but outside the bracket. Bryant expects four losses each for Florida and South Carolina, while Ole Miss claims the final SEC place based on his assessment of the remaining head-to-head results.

The full projection gives three bids apiece to the SEC and Big Ten, two each to the ACC and Big 12, plus Notre Dame and Group of Five representative UTSA. Texas would advance to face No. 1 Georgia in the quarterfinals if it beats Wake Forest, while No. 11 Ole Miss would open at No. 6 UCLA.

This is a forecast rather than a ranking of where the field stands now. Bryant’s case depends on projected outcomes across several conferences, including Georgia winning the SEC, Texas reaching the conference title game and multiple contenders finishing with two or three losses.

Why it matters

Texas begins the stretch run at No. 7 in the CFP rankings, leaving room for a third loss in Bryant’s projection. Head-to-head wins over other projected 9-3 SEC contenders would strengthen the Longhorns’ comparison for an at-large bid.

What to watch next

Texas’ games against Missouri and LSU will test the projected 9-3 path. Results involving the other SEC contenders will shape how many teams remain in the at-large discussion.