Tennessee's playoff path remains open at 9-3

Tennessee would retain a 52-58% chance to reach the 12-team College Football Playoff with a 9-3 regular-season record, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor. The Vols are 7-2 overall and 4-2 in the SEC after moving to No. 8 in Tuesday’s CFP rankings.

A 10-2 finish gives Tennessee greater than a 99% playoff chance, along with a 40% chance to earn a first-round bye as a top-four seed and a 56% chance to host a first-round game. In a simulation that excluded an SEC Championship Game appearance, Tennessee landed at No. 5, hosting No. 12 Boise State before a possible quarterfinal against No. 4 Miami.

The 9-3 scenarios vary depending on the loss. A defeat at Texas A&M followed by wins over LSU and Vanderbilt produces a 58% playoff chance, with Tennessee projected as the No. 10 seed visiting No. 7 BYU. The Vols receive a 52% chance if they lose to LSU and beat Texas A&M and Vanderbilt. That simulation places them at No. 9 for a road game at No. 8 UCLA.

Wins over Texas A&M and LSU followed by a loss at Vanderbilt also yield a 58% playoff chance. That simulation sends No. 10 Tennessee to No. 7 Wake Forest. Across those 9-3 outcomes, the Vols’ chance to host ranges from 17-20%, while their chance to open on the road ranges from 35-39%.

Tuesday’s actual bracket projection has Tennessee as the No. 8 seed, hosting No. 9 Indiana, with the winner advancing to face No. 1 Georgia. ESPN’s Football Power Index ranks Tennessee No. 11. It assigns a 49.2% playoff chance and projects a 9-3 finish.

Tennessee also moved up one spot to No. 10 in ESPN’s SP+. The Vols rank No. 9 on special teams, No. 10 on defense and No. 22 on offense.

Why it matters

Tennessee does not have to finish 10-2 to remain in the playoff race, though winning out would push its projected chance above 99%. A 9-3 finish would leave the Vols near the selection line and more likely to open away from Neyland Stadium.

What to watch next

Tennessee visits Texas A&M on Saturday at 3 p.m. Eastern Time on ESPN, then hosts LSU before closing the regular season at Vanderbilt.