Numbers framed Ole Miss-Texas as strength-on-strength test

Ole Miss entered its Texas matchup with a productive offense facing one of the nation’s best statistical defenses, while the other side paired a struggling Longhorns offense with an improving Rebels defense.

TeamRankings placed Ole Miss 20th in yards per play at 6.4 and Texas second defensively at 4.0 yards allowed per play. In points per play, the Rebels’ 0.543 ranked 10th against a Longhorns defense ranked 21st at 0.259.

Parker Fleming’s efficiency numbers ranked the Ole Miss offense seventh in overall success rate and the Texas defense 11th. Both units ranked seventh against the pass, while the Rebels’ rushing offense stood 15th against a Texas run defense ranked 30th.

Success rate measures whether an offense gains 50 percent of the needed yards on first down, 75 percent on second down and 100 percent on third or fourth down. Fleming used FBS-versus-FBS plays with garbage time removed, while TeamRankings used FBS-versus-FBS statistics.

Texas had the weaker offensive profile, ranking 70th in overall success rate, including 80th through the air, against an Ole Miss defense ranked 55th overall and 47th against the pass. In points per drive, the Longhorns stood 71st against the Rebels’ 65th-ranked defense.

Gray Hardison of Red Cup Rebellion reported that Texas would be without edge defender Colin Simmons, while starting running back Hollywood Smothers was likely to miss the game. Rumors circulated that backup quarterback KJ Lacey Jr. had received more first-team practice snaps, though Texas coach Steve Sarkisian denied them.

Ole Miss also carried the stronger scoring profile, ranking first with a 100 percent red-zone scoring rate and 14th with 4.5 touchdowns per game. Defensively, Texas allowed 1.3 touchdowns per game, ranking second.

Why it matters

The matchup paired Ole Miss’ seventh-ranked overall offensive success rate with Texas’ 11th-ranked defense. Texas’ offensive efficiency gave the improving Rebels defense a chance to influence the game on early downs and passing situations.

What to watch next

The source’s next test was the Ole Miss-Texas game that Saturday, it does not report the result or identify a later decision.