Kentucky holds SEC’s last projected CFP spot

Kentucky is the SEC’s last team in ESPN’s projected College Football Playoff bracket after Week 10, joining Georgia, Alabama, Texas and Tennessee in the 12-team field. ESPN’s projection gives the conference five of the top 10 seeds.

The Wildcats’ loss to Tennessee hurt their chances of reaching the SEC Championship Game, but their résumé still rates well in two committee-relevant areas. Kentucky ranks in the top six nationally in ESPN’s strength of schedule and strength of record metrics, supported by wins over South Carolina, LSU and Oklahoma.

The Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Kentucky a 36.5% chance to make the field. Its remaining opportunity for another signature result comes Nov. 21 at Missouri, where ESPN’s FPI gives the Wildcats a 38.3% chance to win. Kentucky has no room for a third loss.

Ole Miss is ESPN’s first team out after a convincing home loss to Georgia. The Rebels’ playoff probability fell to 37.3%. They were also essentially eliminated from the SEC title race. Their head-to-head win over LSU keeps them ahead of the three-loss Tigers in ESPN’s bubble order.

LSU remains involved because games against Texas and Tennessee over the next two weeks can still affect both the SEC race and CFP selection. The Tigers rank No. 5 in overall efficiency and face the No. 9 remaining schedule, while Ole Miss has the No. 54 remaining schedule with Oklahoma, Wofford and Mississippi State left.

ESPN’s projected bracket gives first-round byes to No. 1 Georgia, No. 3 Alabama and No. 4 Texas. No. 9 Tennessee would visit No. 8 UCLA, while No. 10 Kentucky would play at No. 7 Indiana.

Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt are listed as out of CFP contention. The selection committee’s next rankings will determine whether ESPN’s five-team SEC projection matches the committee’s view.

Why it matters

The SEC has five teams in ESPN’s projected top 10, including three positioned for first-round byes. Kentucky remains inside the field, while Ole Miss and LSU need wins and help to rejoin it.

What to watch next

The CFP selection committee releases its rankings Nov. 10 at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN. Kentucky’s remaining signature-win opportunity is Nov. 21 at Missouri.